Ericsson said that it’s forecasting Sub-Saharan Africa to be the fastest-growing region for 5G subscriptions over the next five years, from around 30 million in 2025 to roughly 370 million by 2031.
According to the latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, total mobile subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach 1.31 billion in 2031, up from 1.05 billion last year, which means 5G subscriptions will account for around 28% of the market by then.
Ericsson is also expecting legacy 2G and 3G networks to shrink considerably in that time as 4G and 5G become more dominant. Of the two, 4G will still rule, growing from 490 million subscriptions in 2025 to 610 million by 2031, accounting for 46% of the market.
The report also expects average monthly data consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa to grow from 5.3 GB per active smartphone in 2025 to 12 GB in 2031. Total mobile data traffic in the region is forecast to grow from 2.8 EB per month in 2025 to 9.7 EB per month in 2031.
“As digital transformation scales across the continent, the rise of AI and uplink-heavy applications, such as XR and autonomous devices, will fundamentally change traffic patterns,” said Alain Maupin, VP and head of Ericsson East and North Africa at Ericsson Europe, Middle East and Africa.
Majda Lahlou Kassi, VP and head of Ericsson West and Southern Africa, added that the expected acceleration of 4G and 5G presents a major opportunity for the region to leapfrog into the AI era.
“By transitioning away from legacy networks, we are building the foundation for a vibrant, inclusive digital economy,” he said. “With the right collaborative investments in spectrum and policy frameworks, Africa is positioned to fully participate in, and benefit from, the AI boom.”
However, the distribution and uptake of 5G in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to vary widely. To date, 36 out of 54 countries in Africa have launched 5G in some form, with some still in the pre-commercial stage, and most with coverage limited to major urban centres, high-traffic hot spots and tourist areas.
Smartphone affordability remains one of the biggest barriers to adopting both 4G and 5G. The GSMA Handset Affordability Coalition has said that smartphones must be priced in the US$30-40 range to unlock mass adoption in emerging markets where affordability remains a key barrier. The GSMA estimates that 3.1 billion people have mobile coverage but are not connected to the mobile internet.
Earlier this consulting group Omdia said that while smartphone shipments to Africa saw a 14% year-on-year uptick in Q4 2025, the firm expects those numbers to decline 22% in 2026, with low-price devices in particular hit by component inflation. Omdia also noted that in some markets, import duties and cost of living expenses are also impeding entry-level smartphone take-up.
