Novaspace, a space consulting and market intelligence firm, has published the 13th edition of its Prospects for Maritime Satellite Communications report, offering an in-depth look at the key developments driving the evolution of this dynamic sector. The report outlines a fundamental transformation underway in maritime connectivity, fueled by the widespread adoption of non-geostationary satellite orbit (NGSO) systems and the disruptive impact of players like Starlink.
According to Novaspace, the number of vessels using satellite communications is projected to climb to 125,000 by 2034. As this market expands, the industry’s dependence on traditional geostationary orbit (GEO) capacity is set to decline sharply. The report highlights a growing shift in primary bandwidth usage from GEO to NGSO systems, with NGSO capacity expected to surge from 286 Gbps in 2024 to 2 Tbps by the end of the decade—marking a sevenfold increase.
Vishal Patil, Project Manager at Novaspace, said: “This major shift was already visible in 2024 as Starlink made its mark on the market. Starlink disrupted the maritime satcom market via its official service launch, influencing the direction of the market in almost every way. They can certainly expect to continue enjoying their first-mover advantage, at least in the short-term.”
As a result, NGSO’s share of total satellite capacity used in maritime applications is expected to grow from 85% in 2024 to about 98% by 2034. NGSO-based service revenues are also forecast to dominate the market, capturing 93% of revenues by the end of the decade. While NGSO platforms are rapidly overtaking GEO in capacity and services, Novaspace underscores that GEO systems will not become obsolete. Major vessel operators remain cautious about relying exclusively on NGSO solutions, opting instead for hybrid connectivity strategies that combine GEO and NGSO networks—reshaping the competitive landscape and introducing new market dynamics.
Looking forward, Novaspace projects that service revenues in the maritime satcom market will reach $3.3bn by 2034, supported by both rising demand and increases in some average revenue per user (ARPU) rates. While the past year saw operators renegotiating and streamlining contracts to manage rising connectivity costs, Novaspace expects pricing trends to stabilise as ownership costs decline and new standards take hold. With demand for maritime connectivity surging and satellite capabilities rapidly evolving, the firm emphasises that service providers must recalibrate their strategies to remain competitive in a fast-changing market.
