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Industry Perspective  

 Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission is focusing on WiMAX as the country's densely populated areas are now in dire need for advanced broadband services. The regulatory body's projections show that upon the start of the WiMAX wireless broadband access, a nearly 10,000-user base could accumulate by end-2008, thereon multiplying twenty-fold over the next two or so years. Bangladesh is amongst late adopters of WiMAX in the SAMENA region, which is gradually moving toward the technology. The WiMAX take-up is being perceived as a revolutionary change in the country's advancing telecom sector.

 Mobile TV powered by DVB-H technology has been launched in Morocco by the country's Societe Nationale de Radiodiffusion et de Television (SNRT). Currently, the service is being provided to Morocco's capital Rabat and Casablanca, and plans exist to expand the service to several other urban areas during 2008-2009. Mobile broadcast television combines mobile telephony and TV and is being keenly focused on by telecom operators throughout the SAMENA region, given its strong revenue-generation potentials.

 Managing network capacity, reducing network costs, guaranteeing improved quality of service are some of the latest focus areas for telcos. Designed to route traffic through wired broadband connections when users are home, fixed-mobile convergence can help networks to manage capacity related stress and, in turn, create real opportunities for vendors. Latest research by ABI suggests that mobile operators are increasingly adopting FMC-related and fourth-generation equipment, spendings on which may reach US$850 million over the next five years.

 Research by ABI indicates that femtocell development and adoption will require at least two more years before the market could really be cracked. Only a handful femtocell development trials are currently underway and approximately 100,000 femtocell units only are expected to be shipped this year. Over the next two years, however, femtocell solutions will become more optimized and affordable, and by then manufacturers too are more likely to have the supply and demand to sustain price reductions. Many companies are pursuing the femtocell market but they do need to tackle technical challenges (e.g. interference with macrocells, integration of femtocell technology into set-top boxes or broadband modems, etc) and to improve their business models.

 Research shows that the ability to rapidly introduce new products will be of utmost importance in the upcoming future; however, operators require significant commitment for developing the associated business model. This viewpoint by Telekom Austria holds that advancing toward a content-based model requires strong top-level executive interest, focus, and time. The subscriber and the subscriber’s evolving needs have to be carefully understood, so tremendous amount of time along with network investments are also required. The transformation of approach that the current workings require can only happen if industry experts tackle this issue collaboratively.

 M&A activities in the Middle East continue, as now Turkey’s largest mobile operator, Turkcell, is planning to submit its bid for a majority stake in Belarusian mobile service provider BeST. Belarussian government is divesting its stake in BeSt, expected to be around US$500 million. Key stakeholders in Turkcell include Turkcell Holding, Turkey's Cukurova, and Sonera Holding, while nearly a third of it is publicly traded.

 The European Union has asked EU nations to promote DVB-H as the official Mobile TV standard, and is urging other nations to follow suit. Digital Video Broadcasting for Handhelds (DVB-H) has major backings from handset manufacturers that include Nokia, Philips, Sony, Sagem, Ericsson, and Motorola, while major telecom operators such as Vodafone and O2 have also pledged support to this standard. The ruling favors DVBH over other standards such as DMB and MediaFlo as it would help reduce uncertainty that has surrounded Mobile TV standardization so far, and may better lead to economies of sales.

 Advancements in mobile multicast and broadcast technologies have led to the development of another technology that allows WiMAX service providers to support personalized multimedia services. The MXtv technology, as it is called, supports interactive media, Mobile TV, and digital audio without requiring the purchase of additional spectrum or related network equipment. Compatible with Mobile WiMAX's "e" standard, the technology enhances broadcast quality on WiMAX channels and dynamically allots spectrum on mobile television channels, while catering to both user demand and service availability.

 Lebanon is preparing for the mobile license auction this summer and has already received confirmed interest for a license bid from Zain. The Kuwaiti operator, which operates one of two GSM networks in Lebanon under the name MTC Touch, is nearing the end of its management contract with the government, and thus intends to compete for a license and two-thirds ownership stake in the operator in a state auction that has already been delayed. Other interested players may include QTel, Etisalat, Orascom, and Batelco.

 Egypt's telecommunications regulator NTRA has decided to bring more competition to Egypt's fixed-line market. The regulatory body intends to make tender documents available by mid-March 2008 and has already asked a syndicate of domestic as well as international firms to submit their bids by mid-June this year. So far, Etisalat and Orascom Telecom have expressed their interest in participating in the bidding process. Egypt Telecom, the current fixed-line incumbent, holds 48.97% stake in Vodafone Egypt.

 Official awards of Saudi Arabia’s three newest fixed-line licenses have been made by the Saudi government. Syndicates led by Bahrain's Batelco, Verizon Communications of the US and PCCW of Hong Kong won an auction for the licenses (initial approvals) in April 2007. The Batelco syndicate will invest US$1 billion on its wireline operations over the next five years. All three firms have agreed to sell off 25% of their shares via initial public offers, 10% stakes to a state pension fund, and 5% to a social insurance organization.

 The cellular network infrastructure market is expected to be greatly influenced by business cases for (or lack of) 3G enhancements. While it appears, at least from vendor perspective offered to operators, that advancements in 3G networks through LTE may be a sound investment, it is important to note that mobile services will increasingly be realized using alternative means such as femtocells and broadcasting networks, rendering the likes of LTE arguably unnecessary. Furthermore, it appears that the pace of LTE may be considerably slow to offer strong leverage to mobile services, considering the technology may not make a widespread market entry for another two years. Vendors have much to consider, given the evolution underway in the third generation of telecommunications.



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